It has been hard to find any type of news to spur prices higher, and even now we are limited to bullish fundamental news, but this week has posted strong buying and higher prices. The current rally is technical, especially for soy oil and canola, but it has triggered the unwinding of spreads.

It has been just shy of a week since the April WASDE report that posted higher than expected soybean carry out, and on Monday, April 15th the USDA released the first report posting soybean planting progress at 3%. The planting progress was of little significance after the monthly NOPA crush report was released earlier the same day. The crush report posted a record of 196.406 million bushels of soybeans crushed during the month of March…

From the previous Crop Talk article, we have seen prices trade mostly sideways across the board, and that is in light of the adjusted planted acreage numbers that were released on March 28th, and now we are on the verge of the April WASDE report that will be released on Thursday, April 11th…

It has been another week with minimal fundamental news to direct markets, and the result was choppy trade that bounced like a ball with every wisp of information. Soybeans traded higher and lower based on Chinese buying, or lack of interest. Corn has been very quiet with most interest surrounding soil moisture and weather forecasts for both the U.S. and Argentina. The wheat complex has been bouncing on increased activity around the Black Sea…

With a lack of fundamental news and Ag commodity markets dealing with bear markets and pushing lower from highs that were established 2 years ago, I have been fielding questions regarding election years and if they lead to turns in markets? This is a result of producers searching for hope and reasons that markets could turn higher. We have seen the result of high food prices in India leading to the temporary removal of import tariffs on some pulse crops…

On Friday, March 8th, we had the monthly WASDE report and with it brings the spring transition as we move towards new crop estimates and planting intentions being reported on March 29th. The latest WASDE report showed minimal changes to U.S. and world carry outs, with the world ending stocks seeing more adjustments based on adjusted production estimates for corn and soybeans. Friday’s WASDE report posted a 15-million-bushel decline in export demand…

Foreign interest or demand is always a big factor in markets and this year is a big change from the demand that was seen in 2020 when we faced the Covid pandemic, and then again when the Russia/Ukraine war began and interrupted international trade. Of course, this is all old news and is not directly affecting markets, or at least not in a positive way, as inflation has led to higher retail prices and created some demand destruction as countries have had to reduce imports…

Another month is coming to an end, and we are growing closer to the coming spring planting season. The corn market has been pushing to new contract lows over recent weeks and there is now speculation that corn acres may decline this year. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum had already called for a drop in acres from last year, with estimated corn acres posted at 91 million acres versus the 2023 crop year total of 94.6 million…

Last week wrapped up with the Ag Outlook Forum, which as expected didn’t have anything positive for the grain markets. The USDA is forecasting increased ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat with increased yields leading to strong production. The Forum is projecting 91 million acres of corn, versus last year’s 94.6 million, soybean acres of 87.5 million, versus average trade guess of 86 million, and total wheat acres are forecast to be down 2.5 million acres…

Export demand has been elusive and limited for the past year, and we haven’t been able to find anything to renew foreign buying outside of the routine business. Last week’s monthly WASDE report posted decreases in not only export demand with soybeans, but also a drop in domestic demand for corn and wheat. The result is that we have increased ending stocks and while the industry was expecting small gains…

Market news has been very minimal in recent weeks, which seems very unusual for this decade having started out with the Covid Pandemic beginning in 2020. Markets were then reinvigorated in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and sent prices to new highs again. Now the winter doldrums have returned us to very small trading ranges for the corn market and have left us looking for anything to discuss when…

Over the past couple of days it has felt more like spring than the end of January, which might speed up the process of getting ready for spring planting. Continuing with last week’s article on planting intentions we will take a look at corn and soybeans, but rather than look at attempting to guess what the final acreage might be let’s look at the current prices for new crop and how that might dictate whether…

Many of you are wondering why I am bringing up spring planting when we just finished up with several days of 30 below zero temperatures, but it will be here faster than many will be ready for. The corn and soybean acres are usually the most concerning and rightfully so as they usually lead market direction, but for those of us across the Northern Plains and the Canadian Prairies the decision on planting Hard Red Spring wheat or possibly…

The past week most of the market focus was on the monthly and annual USDA reports which included the monthly WASDE report, the annual Winter Wheat and Winter Canola Seedings report, the annual Crop Production Totals, and the Quarterly Stocks report. The large commodities of corn, soybeans, and wheat receive the most attention, but seeing how this article is posted on Sustainable Oils website and their crop of focus is Camelina…

Often when we think of “Dormancy” we are thinking of winter wheat, or bears, but recently it feels that market moving news has also hit a state of dormancy. There are a couple of definitions of dormancy; 1) “the state of having normal physical functions suspended or slowed down for a period of time, deep sleep – the state in which a plant is alive but not actively growing”, or 2) “the state of being temporarily inactive or inoperative”.

I hope the first days of 2024 are treating you all well. It is the first trading day of 2024 and soybeans are leading the way lower. We ended 2023 with oilseed markets being in a weather market, and we begin 2024 under the same direction, but now it appears that recent rains may improve Brazilian crop conditions. The rains over the past week are not the only concern for markets– we also have the current weather models that predict…

It is that time of year when we are quickly approaching the Christmas and New Year holidays. When it comes to markets and trading it has also become a time of minimal fundamental news and traders unwinding positions to reduce risk through the holidays. As traders take positions off, we see lower volume traded which can lead to some added volatility. Recently this has been less evident as we maintain…

The past week we have seen a wide range of trading across the futures traded commodities, which was to be expected with monthly USDA reports having been released on Friday, December 8th. Heading into the reports traders were expecting very little changes to the U.S. balance sheets, however due to increased export sales of wheat and corn we did see carry out of corn and wheat decrease. Most traders and analysts were looking forward to seeing where…

The U.S. is not a big player when it comes to canola production, but our neighbors to the north are the world’s leading producer and exporter. Canadian producers faced a slew of issues and concerns over the past growing season as they started out abnormally dry and were prepared for low yields only to have Mother Nature send rains that helped yields recover. On Monday, December 4th, the latest report from…

It is the final days of November and the last USDA Crop Progress and Condition report for 2024 was released on Monday, November 27th. Corn harvest was pegged at 96% complete and Michigan was trailing the pack with only 79% of the corn picked. The harvest came off in a timely manner and there were no concerns over lost production or quality and with the USDA posting an increase in production in the…